Lately, Abiy Ahmed embarked on uncharted territory of trying to achieve what his predecessors could not achieve. In this article, we will try to get into his mindset and find out circumstances related to him both socially and psychologically that are forcing him to take these actions.
In Africa, 15 landlocked Countries excluding Ethiopia are: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad,, Lesotho, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, South Sudan, Swatini, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The fourteen European landlocked countries are Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Kosovo, Czechia, Hungary, Liechtenstein, Luxemburg, North Macedonia, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia and Switzerland. In South America, it is Paraguay and Bolivia that are landlocked. In Asia, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Laos, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have no coastline.
None of these Thirty‐One Landlocked Countries in the world ever claimed to have the right to access a coastline because of their population is more than that of a neighboring country which has a coastline. Coastlines are not distributed based on the size of the population of nations by the United Nations or any other international organization. Kazakhstan with a land area of 2,724,900 km2, 7.5 times bigger than Oromia or 2.5 times bigger than Ethiopia (when Ogaden is included), never acted in such an absurd manner of claiming to have the right to a coastline due to their land size.
Recently, Abiy said, “What I want to talk to you today is regarding water, the Red Sea Water. We can see that a narrow strip of land separates us from the sea.” To him what separates Ethiopia from the sea are not countries but a small strips of land that is not worthy of blocking Ethiopia from accessing the sea.
In a BBC article, he was described as someone who is obsessed with his legacy to include his contribution to acquire a seaport by any means, through negotiation or through war. It was stated in that same article that Abiy has gained a reputation for unpredictability.
On November 8, Abiy said, “We want to get a port by peaceful means, but if that fails we will use force.” In that same setting, he said, “Ethiopia has never invaded any country and will not do in the future.”
He continued to say, “It is crucial that the present leaders of Somalia, Djibouti, Eretria and Ethiopia to engage in discussions, not just for the present, but to ensure lasting peace,” which he meant that it is in the best interest of these three countries better come up with a solution of his perceived problem or they will have no peace.
The Source of Abiy’s Obsession and Unpredictability
We need to dig deep into the frame of mind of the individual, Abiy, who is making increasingly unreasonable assertions related to Oromia’s lack of coastline. Historically, his oppressors, the Amharas and later the Tigray were not able to achieve militarily what he is trying to achieve as an oppressed, dispossessed, marginalized, dehumanized person. People in Oromia have a long history, 400 years, of exclusion, forced assimilation, cultural destruction and loss of fertile land to other ethnic groups. Even their language was banned before 1991 in Ethiopia for use in the education and in the administration.
Abiy’s mindset becomes clearer to us when we look at what he has in common with Mengistu Mariam. Mengistu came from Konta ethnic group of South West region. A region that suffered similar oppression as Oromia in the hands of Minilik. When Mengistu was forming his Party ’s Central Committee, he included 118 Amhara’s out of the 200 members. Almost 60% of the seats were given to Amhara’s which constitute only 20% of the population. This is attributed to the fact that the oppressed people adapt the values and the believes of their oppressors, and when they gain independence and come to power, the oppressed behaves like his oppressor. Mengistu and Abiy are similar in their inferiority complex of trying to behave like their oppressors. In addition, their similarities include their desire to outperform their oppressor predecessors to show that they are patriotic enough and worthy to be entrusted to rule the country.
To achieve these goals of outperforming his oppressor, Abiy is capable of committing all kinds of war crimes such as killing of non‐combatant unarmed civilians as he did in Tigray and Amhara regions recently. The current events in Palestine where the Arab/Muslim countries are not supporting the Palestinians, may make Abiy think that he can get away with similar atrocities he intends to commit in Somalia.
Some can argue that Abiy must be suffering from some sort of temporary or permanent Amnesia or memory loss to think that he can dominate Somalis that occupy a land area of 1,092,925 km2, 3 times bigger than Oromia who, without a doubt, are the dominant group in East Africa. Has he forgotten that Somalia is not made of a 109 groups of different languages like Ethiopia. Which one these groups are individually comparable to Somalis?
Those who are responsible of the geographical landlocked location for Oromia/Ethiopia are their Ancestors, whether it related to the fear of Somalis or the fear of Europeans to colonize them. Somalis did not force Abiy’s ancestors to move from any coastal area and send them to Beshasha to become coffee farmers. It is definitely their choice and none of the Ethiopia’s 109 ethnic groups has connection to the Coastline of East Africa. If that was the case, the names of East Coast’s geographical/geological features would consist of Oromia/Ethiopia or any of the 108 other ethnic groups. We would have Oromia/Ethiopia Peninsula, Oromia/Ethiopia Tectonic Plate or Oromia/Ethiopia Sea Basin. Unfortunately your adventure, which involves in taking a huge unknown risk, is not supported by the historical facts on the ground.
Some also question Abiy’s ability to become a reliable partner in bilateral agreements. In the above mentioned article of the BBC, Abiy was described as unpredictable. During his war with Tigray, he partnered with Eritrea and the Amhara ethnic group. After that war, he tried to disarm his partners, the Amhara, and fought with them. In his war with the Amhara, he used drones to kill civilians.
Thinking that he is comparable with Russia and China, he called on his neighbors to have a meeting and discuss how they can set aside a coastline for Ethiopia! In his address to the Ethiopia’s Parliament, Abiy said “By 2030 we will be 150 million, a population of 150 million cannot live in a geographic prison.” He should be reminded that his Ancestors put them in that prison and they are not with us to relief him of that misery.
Whether this absurd reasoning is related to mild cognitive impairment with slight decline in his mental ability or full blown schizophrenia, the reasoning that Ethiopia, one of the 31 landlocked countries in the World, is entitled to get access to a coastline, points to the symptoms of frontotemporal degeneration.
Finally, it was reported that Abiy likes to be called “The seventh king of Ethiopia.” We are reminding Somalis not to treat him any different than they treated Minilik, Haile Selassie and the likes before him to protect their dignity and sovereignty and repeat the lessons Abiy is requesting from them in a plain and decisive manner once and for all to put this arrogance into its resting place.
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BY: Sumayya Duale Warsame | Samiya Duale Warsame | Sakina Duale Warsame
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