Back in 2009, the creation of the Liyu Police changed the political calculus of the Somali region. Before the Liyu, ONLF, the main opposition party in the region, often fought against Ethiopian highlanders, mostly up from the north, as it sought self-determination and self-rule. However, the creation of the Liyu police changed the dynamics of the conflict, allowing the Ethiopian regime to outsource its counter-insurgency activities to the Somali Liyu. This amounted to ‘indigenization’ of the war where now Somalis were acting against other ethnic Somalis on behalf of the Ethiopian regime. Essentially the Liyu became a monster tool for regime abuse and feared paramilitary force.
Based on their success in the Somali region, other regions in Ethiopia followed suit and created their own Liyu Police. For the Somali though, the Liyu-ONLF clashes changed the dynamics of the Ethiopian-Somali conflict and essentially led to the fall of the ONLF from grace, as brothers fought against each other and Jigjiga became a client of Addis Abeba.
Now that the Abiye regime decided to dissolve the Liyu, what does this mean for the Somali region and Somalis?
1. If anyone had any doubts about it, one thing is very clear: Where Addis goes, so does the Somali region. Jigjiga essentially implements whatever is dictated by Arat Kilo. No buts and ifs about it. There’s no new ball game, no new rules … simply Addis dictates and the regions follow suit.
2. The ‘re-Dergization’ of Ethiopia in Abiye’s image is on track. What we see is Derg 2.0 without Amhara but in Abiye’s image. The project hit hiccups during the Tigrey war but now is picking up full steam.
3. The dissolution of the Liyu police changes nothing on the ground in policy terms, perhaps with the exception of taking unilateral decisions against bad actors from Somalia, which now must be made based on federal orders and not because of regional decision making.
4. On the other hand, we can get used to empowered federal police guarding Somali checkpoints, Derg-style monitoring of the Somali, etc.
For the Somali though, the Liyu-ONLF clashes changed the dynamics of the Ethiopian-Somali conflict and essentially led to the fall of the ONLF from grace, as brothers fought against each other and Jigjiga became a client of Addis Abeba.
Again, whatever Abiye and Arat Kilo decides is whatever becomes the law of the land. Really Jigjiga and the Somali had no say on these matters, whether Addis creates Liyu police or dissolves it. No Somali should act surprised! A more relevant question is: Afaan Oromoo ni dubbatta?
The only thing I found disappointing is the fact that the Somali region chose to be the first region to fall in line. There are other 11 regions who must follow suite, so why is the Somali region the first to jump and oblige, especially given the sensitivity of this issue among the Somali masses?
by Abidrizak M Warfa (PhD) | The Ogaden
COMMENTS
Abiy Ahmed is legally elected PM of the country, and he is restructuring all security forces in the country, including those in the tiny Somali area. Every minor gang and cult cannot hold a country hostage over disagreements by picking up armament and refusing to observe law and order, which is exactly what you advocating the Somali area should be attempting to destabilize the country with the help of few thugs.