It is an open secret that Ismail Omar Guelleh’s health has in recent months been declining rapidly. Because of his health condition, IOG missed numerous meetings and conferences including the UNGA in New York, the Francophone conference, the open National Assembly (parliament) of Djibouti in October, and all cabinet meetings in the month of September and October. The president also didn’t attend the 2024 opening of the second ordinary session of the Parliament, the 9th Legislature opening of the National Assembly, and the traditional 14th session of the Council of Ministers on Tuesday, 1 October 2024. State media reported that the President chaired the session; however, as customary RDT neither televised the speeches and the debates nor published any pictures of the session.
As his health deteriorated, IOG has been rushed to France and then quickly brought back to Djibouti without anyone knowing, only to have the state media televise an old footage from COVID era. Radio Daljir has reached out to unnamed sources at RDT ( Radio de Telèvision) and they tell Daljir that as customary on presidential arrivals “none of their team members had been sent to the airport that day when the president returned from France, but rather a prerecorded clip was brought to the station to publish and broadcast.”
As for the president’s health and other rampant rumors of chaos at the Prèsidence de la Republique, sources close to Djibouti’s power sources are telling Daljir that Djibouti’s long serving dictator hasn’t been running the country lately and is on deathbed. They also tell Daljir that during his brief absence in France, unsubstantiated rumors from competing camps have alleged that they suspected at least one coup attempt by the Republican Guard.
As all dictators, IOG has no succession plan, but the constitution has one, sort of.
Article 29 of Djibouti Constitution states that in case of vacancy of the Presidency of the Republic, for any cause that may be, or of definitive incapacity determined by the Constitutional Council, the President of the Supreme Court shall assume power as interim president for no more than 45 days. However, Abdourahman Cheick Mohamed, the president of Djibouti’s Supreme Court, died on 17 May 2023, and that very important position to date remains vacant.
So, who will assume power when IOG is no longer around?
Before we try to answer that question, let us ask another question: Who is running the country now? The very simple answer is IOG’s wife and his two daughters, Haybado Ismail Omar Guelleh, married to Sadiq John, the former Somalia police officer, and Fatuma Awo, married to an Ivorian. Sources close to the sisters say that both ladies are fighting over who will inherit the presidency. However, in the land of Issa (Ciise), women are not given a leadership role, let alone two sisters who are both married to foreigners.
So, who is jostling for power in Djibouti after IOG?
Power in Djibouti rests solely in the hands of President IOG’s Mamassan subclan, in particular two of the president’s close cousins. One powerful cousin and a clan favorite is Hassan Khaire, a/k/a Hassan Madobe, the head of the secret service, Service de Documentation et de Sedimentation (SDS). The other one is Colonel Mohamed Djama Doualeh, the Commander of the Republican Guard.
Then there is the Commander of the Armed Forces, General Sakariye Sheikh Ibrahim and his son, Director of Armed Forces International Relations (among many other titles including director of military supplies and logistics; director of military education and training), Col. Ibrahim Zakariye Sheikh Ibrahim. They are both mentioned as potential rivals to the two more powerful men at the helm of the secret service and the Republican Guard. However, Col. Zakaria is getting older and almost retired, while his son is young, operationally inexperienced, and without a college degree, but is rumored to have the support of one of the daughters and her mother. However, while the wife of the president and her daughters have power under normal circumstances, in times of transition they are powerless and will most likely flee the country. In addition, with no clan support, the French favorite young Col. Ibrahim has no chance of going against either of the two more powerful men, who are for now front-runners.
As for Hassan Madoobe and Col. Mohamed Djama, clan rumors are abound that an agreement has already been reached between the two and Hassan Madoobe, the clan favorite, will take power after Guelleh, where then it is expected Col. Mohamed to move over to the Service de Documentation et de Sedimentation (SDS).
Contributed to by Daljir staff in Garoowe and Nairobi
FAALLOOYIN & FALCELIN