Ebuzer Demirci of Northeastern University Faculty of Diplomacy on an article posted on his X delves on the future of the signed MoU between Ethiopia and the separatist Somaliland region of Somalia. Mr. Demirci warns of an impending storm as Western powers get uneasy on the close and fast developing relationship between Türkiye and Somalia.
Here is the article as posted on his X:
The turmoil caused by the MoU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland seems to have quieted down, but signs of an impending storm are evident. While many see Ethiopia’s silence as a retreat from implementing the MoU, it’s clear that both Ethiopia and Somaliland are leveraging this agreement strategically. Somalia views this deal as an existential threat.
If the US and UK support Ethiopia in implementing the MoU with Somaliland, the region could face chaos reminiscent of 2006. The Somali people, with nothing left to lose but their land and lives, will likely mount fierce resistance against any Ethiopian intervention. Such a move would also provide new legitimacy for Al-Shabaab. Additionally, IS-Somalia, with a small presence in Puntland, would benefit from the situation.
While the Somalis have nothing to lose, a potential spiral of conflict could further destabilize an already chaotic Ethiopia, increasing ungoverned spaces in the region.
Western powers are clearly uneasy about Türkiye’s growing presence in Somalia, especially considering the security and economic cooperation agreements Türkiye has signed there. They may seek to limit Türkiye’s influence by encouraging the implementation of the MoU, potentially plunging the region into greater violence.
With global trade already disrupted by events in Yemen, the MoU’s implementation between Ethiopia and Somaliland could render the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait completely non-functional. Given the deadlock in Ethiopian domestic politics, a new external conflict might temporarily shift internal focus outward, providing short-term relief. However, this has the potential to plunge the entire East African region into instability.
Considering East Africa’s geopolitical importance, the region’s stability cannot be sacrificed for Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and political power struggles. The failure of Ethiopia and Somalia to reach an agreement will create new problems for the international system, with foreseeable and unforeseeable consequences. The international community must set aside individual interests and demonstrate goodwill to resolve this issue.
History is a burden on nations. Despite this weight, the issues between Ethiopia and Somalia can be resolved through economic integration. A system where Ethiopia and Ethiopians can access the sea economically without compromising Somalia’s territorial integrity and independence would benefit both sides. Ethiopia’s commercial prosperity would directly bring wealth to Somalia and the region, and Somalis are aware of this. However, any Ethiopian military engagement on Somali soil would likely lead Somalis to once again unfurl the banner shown below in the streets of Mogadishu.
By Ebuzer Demirci | Northeastern University, Diplomacy
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