Somalia stands at one of the most fragile moments in its modern history. The country faces a dangerous convergence of insecurity, deep political divisions, and growing uncertainty about the future of its state institutions. In my view, the greatest threat confronting Somalia today is not only terrorism, but also poor leadership, the relentless pursuit of power, and political decisions that undermine constitutional governance and the rule of law.
Former Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is widely accused of seeking to remain in Villa Somalia beyond the expiration of his constitutional mandate while promoting an electoral process that lacks broad political consensus, a clear legal framework, and an agreed constitutional basis. An election conducted outside the framework of the Constitution and without an inclusive political agreement risk becoming an arbitrary exercise one driven by political convenience rather than democratic legitimacy. Such an approach threatens the very foundations of Somalia’s statehood, public trust, and constitutional order.
Rather than prioritizing the fight against the terrorist group Al-Shabaab, the administration shifted its focus toward political confrontations with Federal Member States and domestic political rivals. Instead of strengthening national unity during a time of grave security challenges, political energy has increasingly been directed toward conflicts with regional administrations, attacks against former national leaders including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and confrontations involving communities and regional authorities such as Jubbaland and Southwest State. This has deepened political polarization and weakened the united national front that Somalia urgently requires.
Serious concerns have also been raised regarding the country’s security institutions. Numerous experienced military officers were reportedly removed from key leadership positions and replaced by individuals perceived to have been selected on the basis of political loyalty or personal connections rather than professional merit, which has weakened the operational effectiveness of the Government Forces at a time when Al-Shabaab continues to launch deadly attacks and expand its influence across significant parts of the country.
These concerns are no longer confined to domestic political debate. International partners have also expressed growing alarm over Somalia’s deteriorating security environment. The United States, Somalia’s largest bilateral security partner, has undertaken a review of its support for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of international security assistance. At the same time, recent assessments published in July by international organizations, including the International Crisis Group (ICG), have warned of serious deficiencies in leadership, strategic planning, military preparedness, and the growing threat posed by Al-Shabaab.
Instead of concentrating on national reconciliation, constitutional dialogue, and strengthening counterterrorism operations, the outgoing administration has become preoccupied with mobilizing clan-based militias and organizing pirates encouraging destabilizing the most stabile region in the country, and pursuing political confrontations that further divide the country. Such policies risk widening the gap between the Federal Government and Federal Member States while undermining national cohesion at a time when unity is essential for Somalia’s survival.
At this critical juncture, Somalia requires leadership capable of uniting its people, restoring confidence in state institutions, rebuilding trust among political stakeholders, and placing national security above personal or political ambitions. The country urgently needs an inclusive electoral process founded on constitutional principles, legal certainty, political consensus, and democratic legitimacy.
It is therefore essential that former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud seriously address the constitutional and political concerns surrounding the expiration of his mandate and engage in genuine dialogue aimed at achieving an inclusive political settlement. Somalia’s national interest must always take precedence over the ambitions of any individual or political faction. Only through an agreed constitutional process, credible elections, and genuine national reconciliation can Somalia avoid a deeper political and security crisis and return to a path of stability, democratic governance, and lasting peace.
By: Abdifatah Abdinur
State Minister of the Presidency
Puntland State of Somalia
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